Bulletin de veille du 25 février 2025
Québec/Canada
Dans ce rapport, les auteurs concluent que, tout en demeurant conscient que la rentabilité fiscale n’est pas un objectif de la politique fiscale relative aux fonds fiscalisés, le maintien des crédits afférents pour des motifs de développement économique paraît difficilement justifiable compte tenu des résultats obtenus à cet égard.
À la suite du dépôt d’un budget largement déficitaire en 2024, le gouvernement du Québec a engagé un examen de ses dépenses fiscales et budgétaires afin de déployer un plan de retour à l’équilibre budgétaire.
C’est dans ce contexte que le Centre sur la productivité et la prospérité – Fondation Walter J. Somers de HEC Montréal (CPP) a été mandaté par le ministère des
Finances du Québec afin d’évaluer l’efficacité de la politique fiscale relative aux crédits d’impôt pour les fonds fiscalisés. Cette politique regroupe le crédit d’impôt pour contributions à un fonds de travailleurs et le crédit d’impôt pour l’acquisition ou l’échange d’actions de Capital régional et coopératif Desjardins (CRCD).
Dans le cadre de cette étude, les chercheurs posent un constat clair: la politique fiscale relative aux fonds fiscalisés atteint les objectifs qui lui ont été attribués
quarante ans auparavant en matière de création d’emplois, mais son effet sur les rentrées fiscales ne permet pas de compenser la dépense fiscale afférente, même
en partie. En d’autres termes, les prétentions des fonds à l’égard des retombées fiscales ne sont pas avérées. Dans le meilleur scénario, 15 années devraient
s’écouler pour que le gouvernement récupère sa mise initiale.
Sachant que le gouvernement renonce annuellement à près de 230 millions de dollars en revenus fiscaux pour financer la création d’emplois dans un contexte qui se rapproche du plein emploi, le CPP juge que le maintien de la politique fiscale relative aux crédits d’impôt pour fonds fiscalisés à des fins de développement
économique est difficilement justifiable dans sa forme actuelle.
Ce rapport présente une mise à jour de l’analyse distributive d’un revenu de base garanti réalisée par le DPB.
Dans cette mise à jour, le directeur parlementaire du budget (DPB) présente les incidences fiscales et distributives d’un revenu de base garanti (RBG) selon deux définitions différentes de l’unité familiale, à savoir la famille nucléaire et la famille économique.
Le coût brut du RBG, excluant les coûts comportementaux, est évalué à 107 milliards de dollars en 2025 avec la définition de la famille nucléaire. Ce même coût est pratiquement réduit de moitié et se chiffre à 53 milliards de dollars si l’on utilise la définition plus large de la famille économique.
Le RBG a une incidence progressive sur le revenu disponible des ménages pour les deux types de famille. Le gain le plus important est observé dans le quintile de revenu le plus bas, tandis que les quintiles de revenu plus élevés subissent une perte de revenu disponible en raison des ajustements apportés au régime fiscal et des transferts relativement plus bas du RBG.
Les taux de pauvreté à l’échelle nationale sont établis par la mesure du panier de consommation (MPC); en 2025, le RBG les réduirait de 34 % pour la définition de la famille nucléaire, et de 40 % pour celle de la famille économique.
Le coût comportemental du RBG s’élèverait à 5 milliards de dollars selon la définition de la famille nucléaire, contre 3,6 milliards de dollars selon celle de la famille économique.
Ce court texte discute du risque de déficit budgétaire en Alberta en raison d’une augmentation des dépenses gouvernementales dépassant l’inflation et de la croissance démographique. Les auteurs recommandent de revenir au plan de dépenses initial de 2022 pour assurer la stabilité des finances publiques malgré la volatilité des revenus issus des ressources naturelles.
This bulletin assesses the extent to which the Smith government has increased spending since its original plan in the 2022 mid-year fiscal update and puts Alberta’s current risk of budget deficit into perspective. Despite a commitment to spending restraint in Budget 2024, the Smith government expects to spend $31.1 billion more from 2023/24 to 2026/27 than originally planned in the 2022 mid-year. Only $10.4 billion (33.5 percent) can be explained by higher expected rates of inflation and population growth while $20.7 billion of the increase (66.5 percent) is above and beyond anything linked to these changes. Due to this high spending, Alberta is at risk of incurring a budget deficit when relatively high resource revenue declines. For perspective, if the government were to rely on stable ongoing levels of revenue for the budget, namely stable resource revenue (i.e., average resource revenue from 2004/05 to 2023/24) Alberta’s $4.6 billion projected budget surplus would turn into a $5.8 billion deficit in 2024/25. In 2025/26, Alberta’s projected budget surplus ($1.4 billion) turns to a $6.3 billion deficit and in 2026/27, Alberta’s projected budget surplus ($2.6 billion) turns to a $5.0 billion deficit. In contrast, if the Smith government held to its original 2022 mid-year spending plan (adjusted for higher inflation and population expectations) Alberta’s budget deficit based on average resource revenue would be eliminated by 2026/27. Put simply, the Smith government can use its original spending plan as a guide to stabilize provincial finances.
Ce texte retrace l’évolution des dépenses publiques en Colombie-Britannique. Après une période de rigueur budgétaire entre 2000 et 2017, le gouvernement a adopté une approche plus dépensière, avec une hausse marquée des dépenses à partir de 2016. Si la province avait maintenu son approche restrictive, sa situation d’endettement serait beaucoup moins alarmante. Cette évolution a profondément transformé les finances provinciales.
Several past analyses published by the Fraser Institute have shown that after an extended period of spending restraint between 2000 and 2017, British Columbia’s approach to government spending shifted markedly and the rate of spending growth increased. This study updates that data and finds that from 2000 to 2017, real per-person program spending increased at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent. From fiscal year 2016 to 2022, spending grew at an annual rate of 4.8 percent. A further study published in August 2023 examined the effect of this change on the government’s approach to public expenditures on public finances. We also update this work, estimating that if the government had retained its restrained approach to spending growth, the province’s debt-to-GDP ratio would have declined substantially in recent years and today would be 6.0 percent. Instead, the province’s debt-to-GDP ratio is currently projected to reach 27.4 percent in 2026/27. We conclude that the change in the government’s approach to spending documented in earlier studies appears to be enduring. Higher spending growth has transformed the trajectory of provincial finances. We find that if the government had continued its restrained approach to public spending, the rapid run-up in debt currently occurring could have been avoided.
Ce texte propose plusieurs initiatives pour stimuler l’investissement en logement et en productivité au Canada.
Both the Canadian government and policymakers from various organizations including the Bank of Canada have called for ambitious programs to increase capital investment in Canada, particularly investment focused on residential housing and productivity-enhancing business assets. The ambitious domestic investment agenda will require a substantial increase in domestic savings in order to finance the necessary increased capital expenditure. The requisite increase has been largely ignored, to date, in policy proposals and surrounding discussion of those proposals. The financial capital required to fund major investments in residential housing and even modest increases in business investment will require an increase in the domestic savings rate of as much as 50 percent. Alternatively, much larger inflows of long-term foreign capital investments into Canada beyond what has been realized over the past few decades will be required.Such large increases in the domestic savings rate and in foreign capital inflows would require unrealistic and unsustainably high real interest rates. The implication is that the federal government’s investment goals, especially with regard to increasing the supply of residential housing, are unrealizable over the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, implementing policies to encourage increased domestic savings and channeling those savings into high priority investment activities should be a public policy imperative.
États-Unis
Cet article montre que la faible inégalité des revenus dans les pays nordiques s’explique surtout par des salaires plus équitables grâce à une négociation collective et des politiques publiques favorisant l’emploi, plutôt que par la redistribution fiscale.
Policymakers, public commentators, and researchers often cite the Nordic countries as examples of a social and economic model that successfully combines low income inequality with prosperity and growth. This article aims to critically assess this claim by integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence to illustrate how the Nordic model functions and why these countries experience low inequality. Our analysis suggests that income equality in the Nordics is primarily driven by a significant compression of hourly wages, reducing the returns to labor market skills and education. This appears to be achieved through a wage bargaining system characterized by strong coordination both within and across industries. This finding contrasts with other commonly cited explanations for Nordic income equality, such as redistribution through the tax-transfer system, public spending on goods that complement employment, and public policies aimed at equalizing skills and human capital distribution. We consider the potential lessons for other economies that seek to reduce income equality. We conclude by discussing several underexplored or unresolved questions and issues.
Ce court texte indique que les républicains de la Chambre des représentants tentent d’apporter plusieurs propositions visant à priver des millions de personnes d’une couverture santé et d’une aide alimentaire afin de compenser une partie du coût lié à la prolongation des réductions d’impôts de 2017.
The proposed budget’s reconciliation instructions — the directives to the tax-writing and other committees that set up a special fast-track process for passing budget and tax legislation — make the Republican agenda clear: costly tax cuts for the wealthy and businesses, paired with deeply harmful cuts in programs and services for families and communities. This is an upside-down plan that prioritizes the wealthy and well-connected over families for whom the cost of health care, college, and food is a serious concern. A reconciliation bill that meets the reconciliation directives to each committee would add trillions to the debt over the decade.
Ce rapport analyse l’impact fiscal de l’adoption du Worldwide Combined Reporting (WWCR) pour l’impôt sur les sociétés aux États-Unis, concluant que cette réforme permettrait d’accroître les recettes fiscales des États de 14 % (soit 18,7 G$ par an) en limitant les stratégies d’évasion fiscale des multinationales, bien que son effet varie selon les États en fonction de leur régime fiscal actuel.
Proposals to adopt mandatory worldwide combined reporting (WWCR) in state corporate income taxes are receiving increased attention as lawmakers seek to protect their tax bases from avoidance maneuvers centered around international profit-shifting. This analysis uses publicly available data on the worldwide activities of multinational enterprises, among other sources, to calculate the estimated revenue effects of adopting this reform in states with corporate income taxes. In total, universal adoption of mandatory WWCR would boost state corporate income tax revenues by 14 percent, or $18.7 billion per year. The revenue effects would vary considerably across states due to differences in the starting points for reform afforded by their current corporate income tax structures.
Ce court rapport examine l’impact des programmes d’aide sociale CalFresh et Medi-Cal sur les charges financières des étudiants à faible revenu en Californie, concluant que leur meilleure intégration avec l’aide financière universitaire pourrait réduire significativement le fardeau économique des étudiants et améliorer leur accès à l’éducation.
While low-income students typically qualify for the maximum need-based financial aid, they may face constraints to cover the remaining financial burden. This burden can be eased by two of California’s largest safety net programs, CalFresh and Medi-Cal, which help low-income residents pay for groceries and access health care coverage. We took an integrated approach to college costs, assessing the impact of financial aid, food assistance, and public health insurance on students for each of the state’s public higher education systems: the University of California (UC), California State University (CSU), and California Community Colleges (CCC).
International
Ce texte explique que l’augmentation de la présence des agents fiscaux en Tanzanie a légèrement amélioré la conformité dans la plus grande ville, mais sans impact significatif global sur les petites et moyennes entreprises.
This paper presents the results from a novel field experiment that examined the impact of in-creasing the presence of revenue authority officers on tax compliance and tax morale among small and medium-size enterprises in a lower-income country. The experiment was embedded in the implementation of a representative, face-to-face survey of SMEs across mainland Tanzania. An independent survey firm was accompanied by Tanzania Revenue Authority officers, who observed the interviews in a randomly selected set of urban and peri-urban wards. This translated into a temporary increase in the presence of tax officers throughout parts of the country. The findings indicate that an increase in tax officer presence did not have a significant overall impact on tax compliance and tax morale among SMEs, as measured using a combination of administrative and survey data. However, there were short-term increases in compliance in the largest city and sustained increases in tax morale in the rest of the country. A follow-up survey suggests that these results were likely driven by an increase in the perceived credibility of enforcement rather than meaningful increases in perceptions of facilitation and trust.
Ce texte analyse la suppression des incitations fiscales pour les entreprises exportatrices en Tunisie. Les auteurs notent que cette suppression n’affecte pas les activités d’entreprises existantes, ce qui remet en question l’impact de ces incitatifs sur les investissements.
Despite the large fiscal footprint of corporate tax incentives, limited causal evidence exists on their impact on economic outcomes. This paper helps fill this gap by exploiting the phasing out of a large income tax exemption scheme for export- oriented firms in Tunisia. Using data on the universe of registered Tunisian firms, the analysis shows that the reform caused a decline in the entry of new firms in the sector previously benefiting from the incentives. However, the reduced entry did not translate into any effects on employment, revenue, or the wage bill, as the reform did not impact the activities of incumbent firms, which account for the bulk of economic activity in Tunisia. The findings are robust to addressing various threats to the empirical identification, and they confirm emerging evidence casting doubt on the importance of tax incentives to determine investments relative to other factors in an economy.
Ce document analyse les effets dynamiques des règles budgétaires sur la discipline fiscale et montre que leur efficacité dépend du contexte initial d’adoption, soulignant que des institutions solides et un consensus politique sont essentiels pour assurer leur succès et leur impact durable sur les finances publiques.
Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success. Using data from 108 countries between 1984 and 2012, this paper studies the dynamic effects of fiscal rule adoption. It shows that although fiscal rules generally improve the primary balance, their effects depend on the time horizon under consideration and the context of adoption. In advanced economies and countries with strong political institutions, the effects strengthen over time. Conversely, in emerging markets and developing economies—especially those with weaker institutions—their impact tends to fade as time passes. The findings highlight the critical role of economic conditions and consensus building at the time of adoption. Specifically, fiscal rules introduced in times of economic hardship or under highly concentrated political power are often less effective in the medium term.
Cette étude illustre qu’en Afrique, la charge fiscale excessive pesant sur les opérateurs de télécommunications freine l’investissement et l’expansion des réseaux, soulignant l’urgence d’une réforme pour concilier mobilisation des recettes publiques et développement numérique.
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the tax burden on the mobile telecommunications sector across twenty-nine African countries, encompassing both general taxation and sector-specific levies. To conduct this assessment, we develop a model of a representative mobile network operator, referred to as TELCO, and compute its Average Effective Tax Rate (AETR) by incorporating both standard tax obligations and industry-specific fiscal charges. The average AETR is significantly high, ranging from 77 percent to 116 percent (or 44 percent to 83 percent when excluding license fees), depending on the assumed indirect tax incidence. Notably, the AETR exhibits a regressive pattern, whereby the relative tax burden decreases as gross profitability rises. This regressivity is largely attributable to the structural design of the tax system, which relies predominantly on indirect taxation. […]
Ce texte analyse l’impact des chocs des prix mondiaux sur l’économie des pays à faible revenu tout en évaluant les réponses fiscales possibles afin d’atténuer les conséquences économiques de ces chocs.
We develop a spatial dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open agricultural economy to study the impact of global food, fuel and fertilizer price shocks on consumption patterns of heterogeneous households located in different regions, under alternative fiscal responses, including direct price subsidies and household transfers. We show strong spatial heterogeneity in response to shocks, with associated implications for welfare. In particular, while urban households’ consumption baskets are more exposed to the direct effects of global food price shocks, remote rural households’ production and consumption are more exposed to supply-side dislocations associated with shocks to fuel and fertilizer prices.
Cet article illustre qu’en Écosse, la réforme de la taxe municipale devient une nécessité devant un système fiscal obsolète basé sur des valeurs immobilières datant de 1991. Les auteurs soulignent des inégalités croissantes et appellent à une révision pour une fiscalité plus équitable.
Council tax is levied on the occupiers of residential property to help fund the provision of local services. Individual Scottish councils set the tax rates for their area, but it is the Scottish Government that determines the tax base to which the tax rates apply. With properties still assigned to tax bands based on an assessment of how much they were (or would have been) worth in April 1991, this tax base is now over a third of a century out of date. The tax rates are a lower share of property value for high-value properties: the tax is regressive with respect to property value. And a range of discounts and exemptions distort the usage of residential property, in particular contributing to both the overcrowding and the underoccupation of property. Revaluation and reform of council tax could improve the fairness and efficiency of Scotland’s tax system, especially if combined with reforms to Scotland’s other property taxes. With a process of stakeholder engagement on reform of council tax set to take place this year, it is an opportune time to consider the options and potential impacts on different types of Scottish households.
Ce rapport montre qu’en Écosse, le budget 2025-2026 fait face à des contraintes budgétaires croissantes, limitant la hausse des dépenses publiques et soulevant des interrogations sur la soutenabilité du financement des services essentiels sans nouvelles réformes fiscales.
This chapter of our third annual Budget Report looks at the outlook for the Scottish Government’s finances and its public spending plans and trade-offs. The focus is the coming financial year, 2025–26. Significant boosts to UK government funding have eased the outlook for day-to-day and capital funding compared to expectations as of a year ago. This is despite downgraded forecasts for the contribution of devolved taxes to day-to-day funding. Looking further ahead, a planned slowdown in increases in UK government funding implies that real-terms increases in day-to-day spending would average just 0.5–1.4% a year on average between 2025–26 and 2028–29. Capital investment is set to fall by 4.1% in 2026–27 and remain at these lower levels in subsequent years.
Ce texte montre qu’en France, l’histoire fiscale illustre un dilemme récurrent : l’augmentation de la pression fiscale engendre un coût politique significatif, soulignant que la légitimité de l’impôt repose autant sur son efficacité économique que sur son acceptabilité sociale.
We examine the political costs of taxation in early modern France. We focus on efforts to enforce the salt tax, the rate of which varied across regions. Using a spatial difference-in-discontinuities design, we compare municipalities just inside the high-tax region with those just outside, before and after a reform aimed at curbing illicit salt smuggling. We find that tax enforcement led to a twenty-fold increase in conflicts between taxpayers and the state in municipalities in the high-tax region. This effect persists until the French Revolution, supporting the view that enforcing the salt tax incurred significant political costs.
Finally, we document that the likelihood of conflict increases with tax differences between neighboring regions, which we use to derive an upper bound on the political costs of increased tax enforcement in this historical period.
Ce rapport consolidé incorpore les documents convenus sur le montant B qui ont été publiés par le cadre inclusif depuis février 2024 jusqu’à décembre 2024.
In October 2021, the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (Inclusive Framework) agreed to simplify and streamline the application of the arm’s length principle to in-country baseline marketing and distribution activities, with a particular focus on the needs of low-capacity jurisdictions. Following that mandate, this report contains the guidance on “Special considerations for baseline distribution activities” which is incorporated into the OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises and Tax Administrations 2022 as an Annex to Chapter IV. The simplified and streamlined approach set out in that guidance is expected to enhance tax certainty and to relieve compliance burdens for taxpayers and tax administrations alike, particularly those in low-capacity jurisdictions facing limited resources.
Jurisdictions can choose to apply the simplified and streamlined approach to qualifying transactions of eligible baseline distributors. The guidance in this report sets out the characteristics of in-scope distributors, which cannot, for example, assume certain economically significant risks or own unique and value intangibles. Moreover, certain activities may exclude a distributor from the scope, such as the distribution of commodities or digital goods. The simplified and streamlined approach provides a pricing framework whereby a 3-step process determines a return on sales for in-scope distributors. Finally, the report also provides guidance on documentation, transitional issues, and tax certainty considerations.
Ce texte examine l’évolution des sources de revenus des ménages à faible revenu au Royaume-Uni au cours des 30 dernières années, soulignant que malgré une hausse de l’emploi et des salaires, la diminution du soutien social et l’augmentation de taxes locales comme le Council Tax ont aggravé la précarité financière de ces ménages, mettant en évidence l’impact des politiques fiscales sur les inégalités économiques.
The UK has endured two decades of very sluggish progress on living standards, with a special squeeze on those we describe as Unsung Britain – working-age households, with incomes below the median. This briefing considers the components of income in the round over the last 30 years.
There is a positive side of the story, to do with rising employment and earnings, whose share in poorer households’ income is up by 5 percentage points over three decades. There is also a negative aspect, centred on squeezed social security. Cuts since 2010 have not only offset but overwhelmed previous extensions of family benefits during the New Labour era, leaving the poorest fifth typically receiving benefits worth £1,200 less in real terms than in 1994-95.
Outgoings shape living standards too, and housing costs are down by 3 percentage points of income on aggregate for low-to-middle income households, but this average conceals far more than it reveals, because they have evolved in entirely different ways for different parts of the population. Much clearer is the rise in local tax payments, which have soared across Unsung Britain, and particularly for the very poorest, whose Council Tax burden has roughly doubled to approach close to 5 per cent of income over the last 20 years.
Ce document présente les négociations en cours à l’ONU pour établir une Convention-cadre sur la coopération fiscale internationale, visant à réformer le système fiscal mondial en instaurant des règles plus inclusives et transparentes, notamment sur la taxation des multinationales et la répartition des droits d’imposition, ce qui pourrait accroître les recettes fiscales des États et réduire l’évasion fiscale.
Countries at the United Nations are negotiating a new UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation (UNFCITC). This briefing, Negotiating Tax at the United Nations, serves as an introductory fact sheet, providing insights from an EU perspective.
Ce texte traite de l’estimation de la répartition de la richesse à partir des données sur les successions, en utilisant des méthodes statistiques simplifiées, et aborde des enjeux fiscaux liés à la taxation des successions et à la redistribution de la richesse.
This paper examines the estimation of the distribution of wealth using estates left at death. We establish formal conditions for implementing a simplified version of the classic estate multiplier method, relying solely on minimal information about estates and mortality. These conditions are empirically validated, and the simplified approach is applied to produce new long-run top wealth share series for Belgium, Japan, and South Africa, where estate data have previously been underutilized. This method holds potential for expanding the range of countries and years in which wealth concentration can be estimated, especially where estate data exist but the standard method with heterogeneous multiplier sis inapplicable.
Équipe de rédaction
Recherche et sélection des articles :
- Alyson Auger-Collette
- Mirlyn-Daphney Brutus
- Kristine Javier
- Louis Lemay
Coordination et édition :
- Tommy Gagné-Dubé
Note: L’intelligence artificielle générative a été utilisée dans la préparation de ce bulletin de veille pour la préparation de certaines des phrases résumées (en gras) des documents.