Bulletin de veille du 2 juin 2026
Québec/Canada
Ce rapport compare les statistiques financières de 2024-2025 du gouvernement de l’Ontario avec celles des autres provinces canadiennes en se fondant sur les Statistiques de finances publiques de Statistique Canada.
Ce rapport compare les statistiques financières du gouvernement de l’Ontario en 2024-2025 avec celles des autres provinces canadiennes en se fondant sur les Statistiques de finances publiques (SFP) de Statistique Canada. Les données SFP apportent des ajustements pour compenser les différences de structure organisationnelle et de pratiques comptables de chaque province afin de fournir un cadre standardisé pour la comparaison des résultats budgétaires des provinces.
Ce Regard, préparé dans le cadre d’un colloque sur les droits de douane organisé par l’APFF, procure un État de la situation des tarifs américains appliqués sur les biens provenant du Canada en avril 2026. On y examine l’évolution des exportations canadiennes et québécoises entre 2024 et 2025 et l’on trace un portrait sommaire de l’évolution de l’économie et des finances publiques en cette période de turbulence.
Le contenu de ce regard a été présenté originalement dans le cadre du colloque sur les droits de douane et l’exploitation d’une entreprise aux États-Unis organisé par l’APFF en mai 2026.
Un État de la situation des tarifs douaniers américains appliqués sur les biens en provenance du Canada en avril 2026 est présenté. L’évolution des exportations canadiennes et québécoises entre 2024 et 2025 est examinée et l’on trace un portrait sommaire de l’évolution de l’économie et des finances publiques en cette période de turbulence.
Plus spécifiquement, le document comporte 6 parties :
- Chronologie de l’implantation de droits de douane américains
- Réactions du Canada
- État de la situation sur la relation commerciale avec les États-Unis
- Impact différencié au Québec et dans les autres provinces
- Répercussions économiques
- Répercussions de finances publiques
Cet article révèle que Liberty Media, propriétaire du circuit de Formule 1, a transféré 1,7 milliard de dollars de profits nets au Luxembourg via une filiale sans employé, s’acquittant d’un impôt de seulement 3 437 $ en 2025, soit un taux d’imposition effectif de 0,0000039 %.
Le circuit de la Formule 1 récolte 1 milliard de dollars en droits de course versés par les pays hôtes. On pourrait s’attendre à ce que l’entreprise propriétaire, Liberty Media, paie ses impôts, mais celle-ci compte quelque 200 filiales à travers le monde, dont plusieurs situées dans des paradis fiscaux (Îles Vierges britanniques, Îles Caïmans, Jersey) sans activité économique réelle. Une exception : le Luxembourg, qui publie ses états financiers. Une filiale luxembourgeoise de Liberty Media, Delta 2, sans aucun employé, a déclaré 892 millions de dollars de profits en 2025, pour un impôt de seulement 3 437 $, soit un taux de 0,0000039 %. Au total, 1,7 milliard de dollars ont été transférés au Luxembourg en trois ans. L’auteur souligne qu’il est plus difficile de déplacer des actifs financiers ou immobiliers que des revenus, et conclut que la taxation du patrimoine serait une approche plus efficace pour lutter contre l’évitement fiscal des ultras-riches.
Ce document analyse l’augmentation rapide de la dette publique au Canada et met en évidence les pressions croissantes qu’exercent les déficits budgétaires et les paiements d’intérêts sur les finances publiques, limitant ainsi la capacité des gouvernements à réduire les impôts ou à financer les services publics.
Budget deficits and increasing debt have become serious fiscal challenges facing the federal and many provincial governments. Since 2007/08, combined federal and provincial net debt (inflation-adjusted) has nearly doubled from $1.24 trillion to a projected $2.44 trillion in 2025/26.
Between 2019/20 (the last year before COVID) and 2025/26, the combined federal-provincial debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to grow from 65.9 percent to 75.4 percent. Moreover, the federal and provincial governments are on track to have collectively accumulated $603.7 billion (inflation-adjusted) in total net debt between 2019/20 and 2025/26, an increase of 32.8 percent.
Among the provinces, Manitoba has the highest combined federal-provincial debt-to-GDP ratio (91.3 percent), while Alberta has the lowest (43.4 percent). Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest combined debt per person ($71,611), followed by Ontario ($63,574) and Quebec ($63,488). In contrast, Alberta has the lowest debt per person in the country with $42,368.
Interest payments are a major consequence of debt accumulation. Governments must make interest payments on their debt similar to households that must pay interest on borrowing related to mortgages, vehicles, or credit card spending. Revenues directed towards interest payments mean that in the future there will be less money available for tax cuts or government programs such as health care, education, and social services.
The federal and provincial governments must develop long-term plans to meaningfully address the growing debt problem in Canada.
États-Unis
Ce rapport explique comment les collectivités locales américaines peuvent utiliser des instruments fiscaux progressifs pour faire payer leur juste part aux ménages aisés et aux entreprises, financer des biens publics essentiels et résister aux coupes fédérales qui menacent les budgets locaux.
Working families in the U.S. are struggling while the richest households and corporations have never had it so good. The top 1 % of Americans have seen their net worth explode by 120 % from 2017–2025, while 905 billionaires hold $7.8 trillion – almost twice the wealth of the bottom half of U.S. households. Trump’s second‑term tax law is the biggest transfer of wealth from the working class to the rich in U.S. history. This policy toolkit is designed to equip local leaders to make the wealthy pay their fair share by outlining the importance of progressive revenue, common obstacles, and ways to act.
Ce rapport analyse la révision budgétaire de mai 2026 en Californie et conclut que le ralentissement des recettes fiscales, notamment celles liées aux revenus élevés et aux marchés financiers, accentue les pressions sur les finances publiques et pourrait nécessiter des ajustements budgétaires importants.
Despite Revenue Boom, Budget Architecture Relies on $20 Billion in Reserves. The May Revision’s estimate of tax revenues in the current year represents over 30 percent growth from three years ago. Much of this growth is driven by the personal income tax, which is up nearly 50 percent during that same period. Periods of elevated revenues like these are typically when the state should be strengthening its fiscal position. Instead, the May Revision draws it down—relying on roughly $20 billion in reserve withdrawals and suspended deposits, as well as $4 billion in borrowing (on top of tens of billions of dollars in existing borrowing), to achieve budget balance.
Structural Problem Is Now Upon the State. For several years, we have cautioned that structural deficits were emerging and would soon require corrective action. Despite the current revenue boom, the state now faces a structural budget imbalance—meaning ongoing revenues are insufficient to support ongoing expenditures.
Future Deficits Have Come Down Substantially, but State Ill-Prepared for a Slip Up in Revenues. In January, we noted that our office and the administration estimated the state faced future deficits between $20 billion and $30 billion per year. Due to a combination of higher revenue estimates, lower baseline spending, and ongoing proposals (which both raise revenue and reduce spending), the May Revision cuts these future deficits in half. Despite this progress, the underlying budget condition is not sound. First, the existence of any operating deficits during a revenue boom of this magnitude is itself a warning sign. Further, given the state’s diminished reserves and already accumulated wall of debt, California is ill-prepared for even a slip up in revenues. Even just a repeat of the 2022 market declines, which were mild by historical standards, could quickly push the budget into deep deficits. Alarmingly, given current market conditions, the dot-com bust probably is a better parallel. If such scenario were to repeat, the revenue hole could be $100 billion.
Recommendations. The state’s current fiscal situation is genuinely unprecedented. Despite booming revenues, the budget position is overextended, reflecting: a structurally higher spending base, diminished reserves, an already accumulated wall of debt, and an operating deficit.
Cet article analyse, dans le contexte européen, les liens entre politique fiscale, investissement et croissance économique et conclut que des systèmes fiscaux compétitifs et favorables à l’investissement peuvent stimuler significativement la croissance à long terme.
In a more geopolitically hostile world, economic growth matters not only for individual opportunity but also as the foundation of governments’ ability to defend their values and interests in international conflict.
Too often, tax reform discussions focus on headline rates without considering the tax base and how specific taxes interact with the broader fiscal framework.
Tax Foundation’s International Tax Competitiveness Index (ITCI) provides a useful tool for evaluating the efficiency of tax systems and their support of long-term capital formation and growth.
Countries with more competitive overall tax systems (as measured by the ITCI) tend to perform better economically.
An improvement by one standard deviation in the corporate category score (14.3 points) translates into roughly 1 percentage point higher annual GDP per capita growth and a cumulative 2.29 percentage points over three years.
EU tax policy harmonization can support economic growth only if the harmonized policies reduce frictions between Member States and improve their systems compared to the national status quo.
Ce rapport analyse la croissance récente des recettes des états américains malgré les pressions budgétaires persistantes, en soulignant les défis liés au ralentissement économique, à la volatilité des revenus fiscaux et à la soutenabilité des finances publiques à long terme.
This quarter’s report includes a special focus on the latest comprehensive state revenue forecasts for fiscal year 2027. The projections—covering personal income, corporate income, sales, and overall tax collections—generally point to continued moderation in revenue growth and a more constrained fiscal environment for many states. Although personal income tax collections remain strong in some states, most forecasts anticipate slower growth across major tax sources compared with recent years. These forecasts provide important insight into how states expect economic and policy conditions to shape revenues in fiscal year 2027, though projections remain subject to revision as conditions evolve.
International
Ce document examine, à partir d’une étude de terrain en Ouganda, comment la fragmentation bureaucratique entre administrations fiscales favorise l’évasion fiscale des entreprises et conclut qu’une meilleure coordination entre autorités pourrait significativement améliorer la mobilisation des recettes publiques dans les pays à faible revenu.
We provide novel evidence on bureaucratic fragmentation and weak tax administrations as central enablers of low revenue mobilization in low-income countries. In collaboration with the municipal and national tax authorities in Kampala, Uganda, we cross-link previously siloed tax records for 155,000 firms and conduct a large-scale experiment with 60,000 firms. We document pervasive and selective tax evasion: only 14% of verifiably active firms comply with both government tiers. Cross-record linkage almost triples detectable non-compliance while offering increased enforcement efficiency. This coordination dividend is left untapped. Firms exploit the resulting loopholes through partial informality, re-registering under new identities, and strategic late payments. In a cross-authority field experiment, deterrence nudges, including messages signaling inter-authority coordination, fail to offer a light-touch alternative to addressing fragmentation directly. Our findings establish bureaucratic fragmentation as a distinct and costly source of passive waste in tax administration that existing approaches to revenue mobilization rarely address.
Ce rapport examine les effets de l’architecture financière internationale et de l’endettement sur le financement de l’éducation dans les pays du Sud et conclut que les pressions liées au service de la dette, à l’austérité et à l’évasion fiscale réduisent fortement l’espace budgétaire des États et compromettent leur capacité à financer adéquatement les systèmes éducatifs publics.
As governments across the Global South face rising debt repayments and pressure to implement austerity measures, public education systems are being pushed deeper into crisis. At the same time, countries continue to lose billions in public revenues through international tax abuse and illicit financial flows, reducing the resources available to fund schools, teachers and education systems.
The Tax Justice Network joined over ten civil society organisations in submitting evidence to the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Education, Farida Shaheed, on the relationship between debt, the international financial architecture, and the right to education. The submission responds to the Special Rapporteur’s call for inputs on how debt and international financial policies are affecting education systems around the world.
Drawing on evidence from countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, the submission shows how rising debt burdens and shrinking fiscal space are undermining governments’ ability to finance public education. In many of the countries analysed, debt servicing now exceeds education spending.
The submission argues that these pressures cannot be separated from the failures of the international tax system. Current international tax rules continue to restrict the taxing rights of many Global South countries and enable multinational corporations to shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions, eroding domestic tax bases and increasing dependence on borrowing.
In this context, the ongoing negotiations for a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation represent an important opportunity to strengthen global tax rules, improve financial transparency, and support countries to mobilise domestic resources for public services, including education.
The coalition also calls for reforms to the global debt architecture, including debt sustainability assessments grounded in human rights obligations and a fair sovereign debt workout mechanism under the United Nations.
Ce rapport examine, dans le contexte australien, le traitement fiscal des fiducies (« trusts ») et conclut que leur régime actuel permet des stratégies d’évitement fiscal profitant principalement aux ménages à hauts revenus, ce qui soulève des enjeux d’équité et justifie une réforme visant une imposition plus juste.
Trusts help the wealthy avoid taxes and protect assets from creditors. The use of trusts is growing rapidly in Australia; the number of trusts has almost tripled in the last 30 years. There are now more than 1 million trusts with combined assets of $2.9 trillion and annual income of $601 billion. Revenue equivalent to nearly a quarter of the Australian economy now flows through some form of trust.
Ce rapport présente, dans le contexte australien, plusieurs constats sur l’industrie du gaz et conclut que ce secteur contribue relativement peu aux recettes fiscales malgré des profits élevés, soulevant des enjeux d’équité et d’efficacité du régime fiscal applicable aux ressources naturelles.
New data in the 2026 Federal Budget and Senate gas tax inquiry further demonstrate that Australia needs a gas export tax. Gas is still given away for free. Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) revenue is going down, not up. PRRT raises less money than HECS repayments or beer excise. Japan still raises more tax on Australian gas exports than the Australian Government does, even since the 2023 deduction cap took effect.
Ce document réévalue l’impôt de solidarité nationale français de 1945 et conclut que, contrairement à l’opinion dominante, cet impôt exceptionnel sur la richesse et l’enrichissement a été plutôt un succès. Il a permis de recenser environ 85 % de la richesse privée française et n’a pas provoqué de perturbations économiques majeures.
In 1945, France introduced the Impôt de Solidarité nationale (‘National Solidarity Levy’), a capital levy on wealth as of June 1945 (top marginal rate 20%) and enrichment through WWII (top marginal rate 100%). We argue that, contrary to the prevailing view, this levy was fairly successful. It led to about 2.4 million tax returns (15% of fiscal households), representing ≈2,700 billion francs in taxable wealth (≈260% of national income and 85% of total private wealth). Total tax liabilities amounted to ≈130 billion francs (≈12% of 1945 national income). However, due to high inflation (≈50% per year in 1946‑1948), cumulative payments represented only ≈3.2% of national income. Taxpayer‑level data further suggest the levy acted as an income surtax.
Compared with similar experiences abroad, the French levy was modest. The West‑German Lastenausgleich (1952) generated liabilities of ≈60% of national income, with much less erosion by inflation. The ‘National Solidarity Levy’ illustrates two key post‑WWII challenges: the tension between inflation and tax collection to resolve distributional conflicts, and the difficulty of taxing war profiteers despite public demand for justice.
Cet article analyse la proposition australienne d’une déduction fiscale instantanée de 1 000 $, soulignant que cette mesure, bien que présentée comme un allègement pour les contribuables, pourrait surtout simplifier l’administration fiscale sans offrir de gains substantiels pour la majorité des ménages.
The proposed $1,000 “instant” tax deduction is expected to benefit many Australian taxpayers by allowing them to claim a deduction without having to spend any money in the 2026–27 income year. However, the draft legislation also introduces a significant downside for those who have previously claimed genuine work-related expenses exceeding this threshold, as it is likely to make tax compliance more complex and demanding.
Équipe de rédaction
Recherche et sélection des articles :
- Carole Habib
- Kristine Javier
- Félix Musas
Coordination et édition :
- Tommy Gagné-Dubé
- Ariane Gaboury
Note: L’intelligence artificielle générative a été utilisée dans la préparation de ce bulletin de veille.